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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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causalstatistics.org | 7 | 1 |
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wikipedia.org | 6 | 9 |
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Внешние ссылки главной страницы ( 281 ) | |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu | blogging |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/books/ | Books |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/blogroll/ | Blogroll |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/sponsors/ | Sponsors |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/authors/ | Authors |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/feed/ | Feed |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/12/we-have-a-very-imp... | Comment |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/author/andrew/ | Andrew |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/sports/ | Sports |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/12/four-projects-in-t... | Four projects in the intellectual history of quantitative social science |
garfield.library.upenn.edu/classics1988/A1988M687100001.pdf | Games and Decisions |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelmanaxelrod_0... | my article |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2008/12/01/could_we_publis/ | originally |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2010/10/17/joanne_gowa_sco/ | also made |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2005/04/19/loss_aversion_e/ | 2005 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2008/12/15/risk_aversion_a/ | 2008 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2011/07/24/dont_idealize_r/ | 2011 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/18/differences-econom... | 2014 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2018/12/25/thus-loss-aversion... | 2018 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2009/11/05/slipperiness_of/ | this post from 2009 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/04/24/risk-aversion-is-a... | this from 2016 |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/07/22/alison-mattek-on-p... | this discussion thread |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2011/07/19/one_of_the_easi/ | blogged about this |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2012/03/15/economics-now-freu... | the analogy between |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/decision-theory/ | Decision Theory |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/economics/ | Economics |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/miscellaneous-scienc... | Miscellaneous Science |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/sociology/ | Sociology |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/11/of-manhattan-proje... | 9 Comments |
observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2019/07/repost-some-c... | writes |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/10/linear-or-logistic... | Linear or logistic regression with binary outcomes |
psyarxiv.com/4gmbv | paper currently floating around |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ape17.pdf | here |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2013/08/04/19470/ | ranked |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/06/04/assumptions-life/ | See here |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/miscellaneous-statis... | Miscellaneous Statistics |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/09/exciting-postdoc-o... | 1 Comment |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/public-health/ | Public Health |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/stan/ | Stan |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/statistical-computin... | Statistical computing |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/09/no-i-dont-think-th... | No, I don’t think that this study offers good evidence that installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educatio... |
vox.com/2020/1/8/21051869/indoor-air-pollution-student-achie... | writes |
edworkingpapers.com/ai20-188 | link |
cpuc.ca.gov/aliso/ | Aliso Canyon gas leak |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/rd_china_5.pdf | [2015] Evidence on the deleterious impact of sustained use of polynomial regression on causal inference. {\em Research and Poli... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/2018_gelman_jbe... | [2018] Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression discontinuity designs. {\em Journal of Business and Economic... |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/06/30/what-if-the-author... | watch out |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/10/28/advice-science-wri... | a couple years ago |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/causal-inference/ | Causal Inference |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/08/the-generalizer/#c... | 1 Comment |
ies.ed.gov/pimeeting/ | meeting |
thegeneralizer.org/login | Here’s the demo version |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/07/17/measurement-is-par... | measurement and design |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/multilevel-modeling/ | Multilevel Modeling |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/08/how-to-cut-using-s... | 12 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/02/20/dont-get-me-starte... | come up before |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/AOAS1122.pdf | [2018] Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development. {\em Annals of Applied Statistics} {\bf 12}, ... |
arxiv.org/abs/1903.04556 | presented here |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/ep_stan_revis... | EP |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/bayesian-statistics/ | Bayesian Statistics |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/07/this-graduate-stud... | 15 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/teaching/ | Teaching |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/06/royal-society-spam... | 15 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/author/bob_carpenter/ | Bob Carpenter |
royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/charges | pay-to-publish journal |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/tag/spam/ | spam |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/06/of-book-reviews-an... | 16 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/literature/ | Literature |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/05/votes-vs/#comments | 40 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/04/open-forensic-scie... | 20 Comments |
academic.oup.com/jlb/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jlb/lsz009/... | write |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics14.... | [2017] Honesty and transparency are not enough. {\em Chance} {\bf 30} (1), 37–39. |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2018/11/05/purported-csi-effe... | The purported CSI effect and the retroactive precision fallacy |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/03/smoothness-or-lack... | 5 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/02/why-i-rant/#commen... | 23 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/01/20/another-benefit-bl... | advantages |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ | slogans |
orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and... | way |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/10/07/30181/ | higher |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/02/on-deck-for-the-fi... | 7 Comments |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/01/progress-in-the-pa... | 8 Comments |
mc-stan.org | Stan |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ | BDA |
avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ | Regression and Other Stories |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bym_article_SST... | [2019] Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in Stan. {\em Spatial and Spatio-temporal... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Comment_on_Mode... | [2019] The experiment is just as important as the likelihood in understanding the prior: A cautionary note on robust cognitive m... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bayes_R2_v3.pdf | [2018] R-squared for Bayesian regression models. {\em American Statistician}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/wagenmakers_loo... | [2018] Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for model selection.” {\em Computational Brain an... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Evaluating_Vari... | [2018] Yes, but did it work?: Evaluating variational inference. {\em Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machin... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/stacking_paper_... | [2018] Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion). {\em Bayesian Analysis} {\bf 13}, 917–100... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/entropy-19-0055... | [2017] The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood. {\em Entropy} {\bf 19}, 555. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/loo_stan.pdf | [2017] Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC. {\em Statistics and Computing} {\bf 2... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/v76i01.pdf | [2017] Stan: A probabilistic programming language. {\em Journal of Statistical Software} {\bf 76} (1). |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ep_scott_discus... | [2017] Consensus Monte Carlo using expectation propagation. {\em Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics} {\bf 31}, 692–... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/advi_journal.pd... | [2017] Automatic differentiation variational inference {\em Journal of Machine Learning Research} {\bf 18}, 1–45. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/stan_v_stata_IR... | [2017] Fitting Bayesian item response models in Stata and Stan. {\em Stata Journal} {\bf 17}, 343–357. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/advi_nips2015.p... | [2015] Automatic variational inference in Stan. {\em Neural Information Processing Systems}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/stan_jebs_2.pdf | [2015] Stan: A probabilistic programming language for Bayesian inference and optimization. {\em Journal of Educational and Behav... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/spin.pdf | [2015] Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals. {\em Statistics and Computing} {\bf 25}, 809–819. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/chung_cov_matri... | [2014] Weakly informative prior for point estimation of covariance matrices in hierarchical models. {\em Journal of Educational ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/final_sub.pdf | [2014] Difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy. {\em Statistics and Its Interface} {\bf 7}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/vehtari_efron.p... | [2014] Bootstrap averaging: Examples where it works and where it doesn’t work. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Associ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/MI_manuscript_R... | [2014] Multiple imputation for continuous and categorical data: Comparing joint and conditional approaches. {\em Political Anal... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/mi_theory9.pdf | [2014] On the stationary distribution of iterative imputations. {\em Biometrika} {\bf 1}, 155–173. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/waic_understand... | [2014] Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. {\em Statistics and Computing} {\bf 24}, 997–1016. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/nuts.pdf | [2014] The no-U-turn sampler: Adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. {\em Journal of Machine Learning Resea... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ppc_understand3... | [2013] Two simple examples for understanding posterior p-values whose distributions are far from uniform. {\em Electronic Journ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GRR18.pdf | [2013] Inherent difficulties of non-Bayesian likelihood-based inference, as revealed by an examination of a recent book by Aitki... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/muller.pdf | [2013] Nonparametric models can be checked. {\em Bayesian Analysis}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/chung_etal_Pmet... | [2013] A nondegenerate estimator for hierarchical variance parameters via penalized likelihood estimation. {\em Psychometrika} ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/quantum.pdf | [2013] Does quantum uncertainty have a place in everyday applied statistics? {\em Behavioral and Brain Sciences} {\bf 36}, 285. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/multiple2f.pdf | [2012] Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. {\em Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness} ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GelmanMCMCchapt... | [2011] Inference from simulations and monitoring convergence. In {\em Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo}, ed.\ S. Brooks, A... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/mipaper.pdf | [2011] Multiple imputation with diagnostics (mi) in R: Opening windows into the black box. {\em Journal of Statistical Softwa... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/burdzy.pdf | [2010] Review of {\em The Search for Certainty}, by Krzysztof Burdzy. {\em Bayesian Analysis}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/A06-109-new_ver... | [2010] Adaptively scaling the Metropolis algorithm using expected squared jumped distance. {\em Statistica Sinica} {\bf 20}, 34... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/mrp_voterfile_2... | [2019] Voter registration databases and MRP: Toward the use of large scale databases in public opinion research. {\em Political ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/clustersampling... | [2018] Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size. {\em Statistics in Medicine}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/polling-errors.... | [2018] Disentangling bias and variance in election polls. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/what_learned_in... | [2017] 19 things we learned from the 2016 election (with discussion). {\em Statistics and Public Policy} {\bf 4}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GelmanandAzari–... | How special was 2016? (rejoinder to discussion). |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/rayleigh_final.... | [2017] The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis. {\em Statistics and Public Policy} {\bf 4}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/yair_replicatio... | Online appendix. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/hansen_paper_2.... | [2017] Learning about networks using sampling. {\em Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology} {\bf 5}, 22–28. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/high_frequency_... | [2016] High-frequency polling with non-representative data. In {\em Political Communication in Real Time: Theoretical and Appli... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Pathways_Presid... | [2016] Will public opinion about inequality be packaged into neatly partisan positions? {\em Pathways}, Winter, 27–32. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/swingers.pdf | [2016] The mythical swing voter. {\em Quarterly Journal of Political Science} {\bf 11}, 103–130. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/weighting adjus... | [2015] Incorporating the sampling design in weighting adjustments for panel attrition. {\em Statistics in Medicine} {\bf 34}, 3... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Si_et_al-BA14.p... | [2015] Bayesian nonparametric weighted sampling inference. {\em Bayesian Analysis} {\bf 10}, 605–625. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/perrin3.pdf | [2015] American democracy and its critics. Review of {\em American Democracy}, by Andrew Perrin. {\em American Journal of Soci... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/forecasting-wit... | [2015] Forecasting elections with non-representative polls. {\em International Journal of Forecasting} {\bf 31}, 980–991. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/A12052_Shirley.... | [2015] Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in U.S. death penalty public opinion. {\em Journal of th... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/reversal2.pdf | [2014] The twentieth-century reversal: How did the Republican states switch to the Democrats and vice versa? {\em Statistics an... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bayesrb4.pdf | [2014] How Bayesian analysis cracked the red-state, blue-state problem. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 29}, 26–35. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/misterp.pdf | [2013] Deep interactions with MRP: Election turnout and voting patterns among small electoral subgroups. {\em American Journal... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/murray1.pdf | [2013] Charles Murray’s {\em Coming Apart} and the measurement of social and political divisions. {\em Statistics, Politics and... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/McCormick_et_al... | [2013] A practical guide to measuring social structure using indirectly observed network data. {\em Journal of Statistical Theo... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/feller_gelman_s... | [2012] Red state / blue state divisions in the 2012 presidential election. {\em The Forum} {\bf 10}, 127–141. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ecollege.pdf | [2012] Estimating partisan bias of the electoral college under proposed changes in elector apportionment. {\em Statistics, Poli... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/psq_4021.pdf | [2012] Understanding persuasion and activation in presidential campaigns: The random walk and mean-reversion models. {\em Presi... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/groseclose.pdf | [2012] Discussion of {\em Left Turn}, by Tim Groseclose. {\em Perspectives on Politics} {\bf 10}, 775–779. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.p... | [2012] What is the probability your vote will make a difference? {\em Economic Inquiry} {\bf 50}, 321–326. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/PathwaysSummer1... | [2011] Economic divisions and political polarization in red and blue America. {\em Pathways} (Summer), 3–6. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/w14103.pdf | [2010] Protecting minorities in binary elections: A test of storable votes using field data. {\em B.E. Journal of Economic Ana... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/atlas_2008.pdf | [2010] Breaking down the 2008 vote. In {\em Atlas of the 2008 Election}, ed.\ S. Brunn. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/chance_on_2008.... | [2010] Voting by education in 2008. {\em Chance} {\bf 23}, 8. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/electionnight4.... | [2010] What do we know at 7pm on election night? {\em Mathematics Magazine} {\bf 83}, 258–266. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/theforum.pdf | [2010] Public opinion on health care reform. {\em The Forum} {\bf 8} (1), article 8. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/spp_revised.pdf | [2010] A snapshot of the 2008 election. {\em Statistics, Politics and Policy} {\bf 1} (1), article 3. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/election15Feb.p... | [2010] Bayesian combination of state polls and election forecasts. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 18}, 337–348. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/caplan.pdf | [2010] Economics and voter irrationality. Review of {\em The Myth of the Rational Voter}, by Bryan Caplan. {\em Political Psyc... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ssqfinal.pdf | [2010] Income inequality and partisan voting in the United States. {\em Social Science Quarterly} {\bf 91}, 1203–1219. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Gelman_maintext... | [2018] Gaydar and the fallacy of decontextualized measurement. {\em Sociological Science} {\bf 5}, 270–280. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/millennium_fina... | [2018] The Millennium Villages Project: A retrospective, observational, endline evaluation. {\em Lancet Global Health} {\bf 6}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/MVP_Final_Paper... | Supplementary appendix. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ExplorationsIR.... | [2018] Review of {\em New Explorations into International Relations: Democracy, Foreign Investment, Terrorism, and Conflict}, by... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Kharouba_etal_2... | [2018] Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. {\em Proceedings of the Nationa... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Exploring_the_R... | [2017] Exploring the relationships between USMLE performance and disciplinary action in practice: A validity study of score infe... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GelmanAuerbachP... | [2016] Age-aggregation bias in mortality trends. {\em Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences} {\bf 113}, E816–E817. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ClimRecon.pdf | [2015] A model-based approach to climate reconstruction using tree-ring data. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Associat... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelman_price_ra... | [2015] Centralized analysis of local data, with dollars and lives on the line: Lessons from the home radon experience. In {\em ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/zombies.pdf | [2014] “How many zombies do you know?”: Using indirect survey methods to measure alien attacks and outbreaks of the undead. In... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/stop_frisk_prob... | [2014] Stop and frisk: What’s the problem? {\em Criminal Law and Criminal Justice Books}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/caton2.pdf | [2013] Rates and correlates of HIV and STI infection among homeless women. {\em AIDS and Behavior} {\bf 17}, 856-864. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/freakpdf | [2012] Freakonomics: What went wrong? {\em American Scientist}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/DiPreteetal.pdf | [2011] Segregation in social networks based on acquaintanceship and trust. {\em American Journal of Sociology} {\bf 116}, 1234–... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/pittauzelligelm... | [2010] Economic disparities and life satisfaction in European regions. {\em Social Indicators Research} {\nf 96}, 339–361. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/checklist.pdf | [2019] A consensus-based transparency checklist. {\em Nature Human Behaviour}, doi:10.1038/s41562-019-0772-6. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ejci.pdf | [2019] When we make recommendations for scientific practice, we are (at best) acting as social scientists. {\em European Journa... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Childhood_obesi... | [2019] Childhood obesity intervention studies: A narrative review and guide for investigators, authors, editors, reviewers, jour... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/nutrients-11-01... | [2019] The implementation of randomization requires corrected analyses. Comment on “Comprehensive nutritional and dietary interv... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/multiple_perspe... | [2019] Multiple perspectives on inference for two simple statistical scenarios. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 73} (S1), 328–... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/large_scale.pdf | [2019] Large scale replication projects in contemporary psychological research. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 73} (S1), 99–1... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/5a63240a09046f0... | [2018] Do researchers anchor their beliefs on the outcome of an initial study? Testing the time-reversal heuristic. {\em Experi... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/SIGN_15(5)_09_I... | [2018] Ethics in statistical practice and communication: Five recommendations. {\em Significance}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Making_Replicat... | [2018] Don’t characterize replications as successes or failures. Discussion of “Making replication mainstream,” by Rolf A. Zwaan... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/fixing_science.... | [2018] How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science. {\em Socius}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bross_comment.p... | [2018] Learning from and responding to statistical criticism. {\em Observational Studies}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jasa_signif_2.p... | [2017] Some natural solutions to the p-value communication problem—and why they won’t work. {\em Journal of the American Statis... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/neuropsych.pdf | [2017] The statistical crisis in science: How is it relevant to clinical neuropsychology? {\em Clinical Neuropsychologist} {\bf ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/CredeGelmanNick... | [2016] Questionable association between front boarding and air rage. {\em Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences} {\bf... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/birdseye.pdf | [2016] A Bayesian bird’s eye view of `Replications of important results in social psychology.’ {\em Royal Society Open Science} ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/p11.pdf | [2016] Commentary on “Crisis in science? Or Crisis in statistics! Mixed messages in statistics with impact on science,” by Donal... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/multiverse_publ... | [2016] Increasing transparency through a multiverse analysis. {\em Perspectives on Psychological Science} {\bf 11}, 702–712. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/multiverse_sup.... | Supplemental materials. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/asa_pvalues.pdf | [2016] The problems with p-values are not just with p-values. {\em American Statistician}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/haidt.pdf | [2015] Political attitudes in social environments. Discussion of “Political diversity will improve social psychological science... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/psych_crisis_mi... | [2015] Statistics and the crisis of scientific replication. {\em Significance} {\bf 12} (3), 33–35. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics13.... | [2015] How is ethics like logistic regression? Ethics decisions, like statistical inferences, are informative only if they’re no... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/essay_Gelman.pd... | [2015] Statistics and research integrity. {\em European Science Editing} {\bf 41} (1), 13–14. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics12.... | [2015] Disagreements about the strength of evidence. {\em Chance} {\bf 28}, 55–59. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/11(4)_09 Opinio... | [2014] A world without statistics. {\em Significance} {\bf 11} (4), 47. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ForkingPaths.pd... | [2014] The statistical crisis in science. {\em American Scientist} {\bf 102}, 460–465. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics11.... | [2014] The Commissar for Traffic presents the latest Five-Year Plan. {\em Chance} {\bf 27} (2), 58–60. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics10.... | [2014] The AAA tranche of subprime science. {\em Chance} {\bf 27} (1), 51–56. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics9.p... | [2013] Is it possible to be an ethicist without being mean to people? {\em Chance} {\bf 26} (4), 51–53. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/referee.pdf | [2013] In praise of the referee. {\em International Society for Bayesian Analysis Bulletin} {\bf 20} (1), 13–19. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics8.p... | [2013] It’s too hard to publish criticisms and obtain data for replication. {\em Chance} {\bf 26} (3), 49–52. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GelmanBasbollAm... | [2013] To throw away data: Plagiarism as a statistical crime. {\em American Scientist} {\bf 101}, 168–171. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics7.p... | [2013] They’d rather be rigorous than right. {\em Chance} {\bf 26} (2), 45–49. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics6.p... | [2013] The war on data. {\em Chance} {\bf 26} (1), 57–60. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/mock.pdf | [2013] Preregistration of studies and mock reports. {\em Political Analysis} {\bf 21}, 40–41. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics5.p... | [2012] Ethics and the statistical use of prior information. {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (4), 52–54. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics4.p... | [2012] Statistics for sellers of cigarettes. {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (3), 43–46. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics3.p... | [2012] Ethics in medical trials: Where does statistics fit in? {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (2), 52–54. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics1.p... | [2011] Ethics and statistics: Open data and open methods. {\em Chance} {\bf 24} (4), 51–53. |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/09/21/what-has-happened-... | terrorist |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/uncertainty_int... | [2019] Are confidence intervals better termed “uncertainty intervals”? {\em British Medical Journal} {\bf 366}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Stents25mar2019... | [2019] Objective Randomised Blinded Investigation With Optimal Medical Therapy of Angioplasty in Stable Angina (ORBITA) and coro... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/abandon.pdf | [2019] Abandon statistical significance. {\em American Statistician} {\bf 73} (S1), 235–245. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/power_surgery_n... | [2018] Post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size is too noisy to be useful. {\em Annals of Surgery}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/VMJG2018.pdf | [2018] The statistical significance filter leads to overconfident expectations of replicability. {\em Journal of Memory and Lang... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/power_surgery_3... | [2018] Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size. {\em Annals of Surgery}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/incrementalism_... | [2018] The failure of null hypothesis significance testing when studying incremental changes, and what to do about it. {\em Per... |
science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6325/584.full.pdf?ijk... | [2017] Measurement error and the replication crisis. {\em Science} {\bf 355}, 584–585. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/weisburd_28.05.... | [2017] Type M error might explain Weisburd’s Paradox. {\em Journal of Quantitative Criminology}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bayes_managemen... | [2015] The connection between varying treatment effects and the crisis of unreplicable research: A Bayesian perspective. {\em Jo... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/retropower_fina... | [2014] Beyond power calculations: Assessing Type S (sign) and Type M (magnitude) errors. {\em Perspectives on Psychological Sc... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Val_Johnson_Let... | [2014] Revised evidence for statistical standards. {\em Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/GelmanORourkeBi... | [2014] Difficulties in making inferences about scientific truth from distributions of published p-values. {\em Biostatistics} {... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gregfrancis2.pd... | [2013] Interrogating P-values. {\em Journal of Mathematical Psychology} {\bf 57}, 188–189. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/pvalues3.pdf | [2013] P-values and statistical practice. {\em Epidemiology} {\bf 24}, 69–72. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Ian_Stewart_Rev... | [2019] The principles of uncertainty. Review of “Do Dice Play God,” by Ian Stewart. {\em Nature} {\bf 569}, 628–629. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/laplace21.pdf | [2019] Laplace’s theories of cognitive illusions, heuristics, and biases (with discussion). {\em Statistical Science}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/rubin.pdf | [2018] Donald Rubin. In {\em Encyclopedia of Social Research Methods}, ed.\ Paul Atkinson, Sara Delamont, Melissa Hardy, and Ma... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelman_hennig_f... | [2017] Beyond subjective and objective in statistics (with discussion and rejoinder). {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Soc... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/cochran_discuss... | [2015] The state of the art in causal inference: Some changes since 1972. {\em Observational Studies} {\bf 1}, 182–183. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/wakefield_regre... | [2015] Regression: What’s it all about? Review of {\em Bayesian and Frequentist Regression Methods}, by Jon Wakefield. {\em Sta... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/cobb2.pdf | [2015] Moving forward in statistics education while avoiding overconfidence. Discussion of “Mere Renovation is Too Little Too L... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/copss.pdf | [2014] How do we choose our default methods? For the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) 50th anniversary ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/storytelling.pd... | [2014] When do stories work? Evidence and illustration in the social sciences. {\em Sociological Methods and Research} {\bf 43}... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/authorship2.pdf | [2013] Convincing evidence. For a volume on theoretical or methodological research on authorship, functional roles, reputation, ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/feller8.pdf | [2013] “Not only defended but also applied”: The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference (with discussion). {\em American Sta... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/fellerip-1.pdf | The anti-Bayesian moment and its passing (rejoinder to discussion). |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/philosophy.pdf | [2013] Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics (with discussion). {\em British Journal of Mathematical and Statistic... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/philosophy_rejo... | [2013] Rejoinder to discussion. {\em British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology} {\bf 66}, 76–80. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bell.pdf | [2012] What made Bell Labs special? Review of {\em The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation}, by J... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics2.p... | [2012] Statisticians: When we teach, we don’t practice what we preach. {\em Chance} {\bf 25} (1), 47–48. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/philosophy_onli... | [2011] Induction and deduction in Bayesian data analysis. {\em Rationality, Markets and Morals}, special topic issue “Statistic... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/dontbelieve3.pd... | [2011] Going beyond the book: toward critical reading in statistics teaching. {\em Teaching Statistics} {\bf 34}, 82–86. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/kassdiscussion.... | [2011] Bayesian statistical pragmatism. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 26}, 10–11. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/philosophy_chap... | [2011] Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics in the social sciences. In {\em Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelman_discussi... | [2010] Bayesian statistics then and now. {\em Statistical Science} {\bf 25}, 162–165. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/bag-of-tricks/ | Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/causal_ssm.pdf | [2018] Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials. Discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized c... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/HierarchicalCau... | [2015] Hierarchical models for causal effects. In {\em Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences}, ed.\ Robert Scot... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/yalecausal2.pdf | [2014] Experimental reasoning in social science. In {\em Field Experiments and their Critics}, ed.\ Dawn Teele, 185–195. New H... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/causalreview4.p... | [2011] Causality and statistical learning. {\em American Journal of Sociology} {\bf 117}, 955–966. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/bayes-vis.pdf | [2018] Visualization in Bayesian workflow (with discussion). {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A}. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Makela_Si_Gelma... | [2016] Graphical visualization of polling results. In {\em Oxford Handbook on Polling and Polling Methods}, ed.\ Lonna Atkeson ... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/v37n2a03MakelEt... | [2014] Statistical graphics for survey weights. {\em Revista Colombiana de Estadistica} {\bf 37}, 285–295. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/stat.columbia.e... | [2013] Infovis and statistical graphics: Different goals, different looks (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/visreply3.pdf | Tradeoffs in information graphics (rejoinder to discussion). |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ramanujan.pdf | [2011] Tables as graphs: The Ramanujan principle. {\em Significance} {\bf 8}, 183. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Niemi_GraphicsI... | [2011] Statistical graphics: making information clear — and beautiful. {\em Significance} {\bf 8}, 135–137. |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/tables5.pdf | [2011] Why tables are really much better than graphs (with discussion). {\em Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics}... |
stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/ | unpublished |
mc-stan.org/users/documentation/case-studies | case studies |
github.com/stan-dev/stan/wiki/Prior-Choice-Recommendations | wiki pages |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2018/08/20/competing-narrativ... | narrative |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/zombies/ | Zombies |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/12/31/it-happens-all-the... | 1 Comment |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/12/27/why-we-sleep-data-... | stories |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/12/31/criminologists-be-... | 9 Comments |
t.co/a4aSphn9sb?amp=1 | this video |
docs.google.com/document/d/1bxzpWh7SS_yYcJg_6Se2MtzuDT5b9WeQ... | this text link |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-s... | Stasi |
slate.com/technology/2018/03/its-hard-to-criticize-science-w... | Javerts |
nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03909-2 | hopes |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/03/23/yes-i-really-reall... | fake-data simulation |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/12/30/resemblance/#comme... | 6 Comments |
wfuv.org | the radio |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/art/ | Art |
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/page/2/ | « Older Entries |
scholar.harvard.edu/allen_schmaltz/research nofollow | Allen Schmaltz |
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statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/category/political-science/ | Political Science |
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